It seems inevitable that the president’s nominee to run the CFPB, Jonathan McKernan, will be confirmed. Not only has McKernan already been confirmed by the Senate for another position, FDIC director, but the Senate Banking Committee Republicans all voted to confirm him to the CFPB directorship. If there is any opposition to McKernan among Republicans, I haven’t heard about it. So it’s just a matter of when the vote is held.
If McKernan continues the policies of the present CFPB leadership under acting Director Russell Vought, then it won’t matter whether Vought or McKernan is in charge. But there are reasons to think McKernan won’t. Vought and DOGE want to break the CFPB, after which they will walk away from it and it will be McKernan’s problem. But McKernan could be running the CFPB for years. When consumer protection issues arise, it will be McKernan’s reputation on the line. He might prefer to have the reputation of someone who helped consumers somewhat rather than someone who let consumers and the Bureau crash and burn during his watch. Put another way, McKernan might prefer to be Kathy Kraninger, who filed dozens of enforcement actions during her leadership of the CFPB, or even Mick Mulvaney, who promised to follow the law, than Vought, especially if he wants a political career after the CFPB.
And there’s another reason to think McKernan might not be Vought II. Remember how we got the tariff pause because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick waited until tariff advocate Peter Navarro was elsewhere in the White House to pounce on Trump? They talked Trump into the pause and announced it before Navarro knew what they were up to. This White House seems to be riven by factions (not that that’s unusual). We know what faction Vought belongs to when it comes to the CFPB but McKernan might belong to a different faction. Call it the Kraninger faction–not my first choice for the Bureau but much less bad than Vought. Maybe one reason Vought is trying to lay CFPB employees off so quickly is because Vought knows McKernan will be less aggressive in doing so.
All this is pure speculation on my part and it could be off-base. If McKernan goes too far in a direction Trump doesn’t like, Trump could simply fire him under Seila Law. And presumably Vought will still be at OMB and would urge Trump to do so if Vought thinks McKernan is doing too much to protect consumers. Maybe Elon Musk will also be in the picture. But it does explain one fact I have been wondering about: why hasn’t the Senate voted on McKernan yet? It’s been seven weeks since the full Senate confirmed the other three presidential nominees whom the Senate Banking Committee voted on the same day the Committee voted to approve McKernan’s nomination. If McKernan is to be the second coming of Vought, why wouldn’t the Senate have simply confirmed McKernan and let Vought move on to other things?
If I am right, the sooner the Senate confirms McKernan, the better (which is something I never thought I would think, much less write). I don’t know if Democrats have any control over when that vote takes place, but I see nothing to lose if they try to move it up. Senate Banking Committee Chair Scott said the vote would occur in May, so it may happen soon anyway, but then again, it may not. Maybe the attempts to lay off and fire CFPB staffers would look somewhat different if McKernan were already in office. Or maybe they would look the same, but in that case, early vote or late makes no difference anyway.
