Hensarling does already have a bill in the House, the Financial Choice Act, that’s being given long odds. “We think the chances that the bill becomes law are less than 20 percent—maybe as low as 10 percent,” Brian Gardner, Washington analyst at the investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, wrote to clients on Feb. 16.
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With Obamacare, taxes, and the budget consuming all the oxygen in Washington, Congress may not get around to Dodd-Frank until 2018 or beyond. Even then the changes could be limited, such as regulatory relief for smaller banks that don’t pose systemic risks, says KBW’s Gardner.